U.S. airlines have been late to cut capacity on domestic routes, with major announcements really only coming through today (American Airlines drastically to cut domestic, international capacity in Apr/May-2020).
Outside the extensive domestic route suspensions United and Delta announced, all other airlines were instead keeping their schedules intact but at the same time increasing the amount of same-day flight cancellations, sometimes in excess of 40%.
The above is an example of future planned air capacity, available to CAPA Members from CAPA’s country profiles. For more information about CAPA Membership, please click here.Aviation Travel Industry news updates
3. Middle East:
Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Interior extended the suspension of all international and domestic passenger services until further notice, as a precautionary measure against the spread of coronavirus (Saudi Press Agency, 29-Mar-2020).
IATA estimated the aviation sector in Brazil will have a 40% year-on-year reduction in revenues in 2020 due to the COVID-19 (America Economia, 27-Mar-2020). IATA also estimates that 61,500 personnel will be retrenched.
Ghana’s President Nana Akufo-Addo announced (28-Mar-2020) Ghanaian banks will grant a six month moratorium on principal repayments by companies in the airline and hospitality industries, effective 01-Apr-2020, as part of measures to mitigate the impact of the coronavirus pandemic.
Commercial and private aircraft movements in Ghana are restricted, with the exception of cargo operations and essential services. [more – original PR]
The above is a selection of more than 150 news updates specifically on COVID-19, from today’s CAPA Membership coverage, which also covers traffic data, route and frequency announcements, government advisories and more. For more information about CAPA Membership, please click here.
Additional Analysis (please click on the headings to go to the full story)
With aviation and travel featuring very high on its government agenda, Singapore Airlines now looks well positioned to emerge from the coronavirus crisis as an industry leader. Other governments across the Asia Pacific region are taking steps to support the airline industry during the COVID-19 crisis, but in most cases the steps taken to date are timid and, so far, inadequate.
Some governments moved early to introduce packages based on waivers of fees and charges, and state-backed loans for airlines have also been offered. A handfulare following up these efforts with more direct forms of financial aid for carriers, with more being likely to follow.
But the playbook has been thrown out of the window due to the sheer scale of the industry shock. Governments with the greatest appetite – and capability – to support their airlines could be a major factor in determining which carriers are in the strongest position when the pandemic eases.
Sometimes a blunt instrument is the best weapon available – regardless of the effect on the long term market profile.
There is no way to predict accurately when the global aviation industry will return to normal, but Azul is holding a positive view that it could possibly be close to a full schedule in Jul-2020, in a current scenario where COVID-19 is a challenge for two to three months.
There have been some dire predictions about the survivability of Latin Airlines after the COVID-19 crisis is over, but at this point in time Brazil’s major airlines seem reasonably well positioned to endure the fallout from the pandemic. However, that could quickly change, given the extremely fluid situation caused by the virus’ spread.
At this stage in the rollout of the worst threat to the industry in modern aviation, many of the indicators are predictable, airline seats are being grounded, travel searches are confounded by the absence of real travel options, with a similar impact on forward bookings; conferences and events equally are almost uniformly being cancelled or postponed.
But, as can be seen below there are some very modest indications of hope for the coming months – which we shall track as they mature into a real recovery. When those forward looking results start to offer guidance to future actions, their full value will emerge.
For now, as PredictHQ suggests below, “the good news for airlines is that the vast majority of the events have been postponed”, rather than being cancelled, so once the revised dates start to firm up, the outlook brightens considerably. The effects on the airline industry will then be indicated by 3Victors and ForwardKeys as the news translates into buyer activity.
The above is a selection of in-depth insights on the latest developments in the aviation and travel industry related to the COVID-19 outbreak.
CAPA Membership includes a range of reports featuring accurate data and independent commentary from our global team of analysts, who offer a unique perspective and actionable insights to help improve decision making. For more information about CAPA Membership, please click here.
Coronavirus Situation Report
Mortality rate continues to grow, to 34,000, representing almost 5% of cases
199 countries are now affected
Confirmed global COVID-19 cases tops 700,000:
Cases by day (30-Mar-2020)
Within 72 hours the USA has added more than 60,000 cases:
Top ten locations for COVID-19 (30-Mar-2020)
Can the US slow the increase of cases? The numbers say no
Top ten highest increases in infections by location (30-Mar-2020)
Global cumulative cases (30-Mar-2020)
Despite massive increases in confirmed cases, the US mortality rate is below global average
Global mortality rate (yellow line) vs. key locations mortality rate (30-Mar-2020)
Spread of virus is proving difficult to manage
The growth rate of the COVID-19 virus has differed greatly between countries depending on the measures in place to combat the spread.
Aggressive containment in countries like Japan and Singapore has slowed the pace of spread of the virus.
The comparison below shows the growth rate per selected country once each has reached 100 cases, so there are different start dates e.g. that threshold was reached first for Japan, so that country was 27 days in.
Daily increase in COVID-19 cases, selected countries : Day 1 = 100 case threshold
Aggressive containment appears to slow the growth rate (daily counting starts once the country reaches 100 cases)
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