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Talking the Tropics With Mike: Chris soon to be hurricane 500 miles NE of Jacksonville

Talking the Tropics With Mike: Chris soon to be hurricane 500 miles NE of Jacksonville

By:
Michael Buresh

Updated: Jul 10, 2018 – 11:17 AM

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July 10, 2018 – The “Buresh Bottom Line”: Always be prepared!First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide Georgia Hurricane Guide.  

Watch “Surviving the Storm”

LOCAL – JACKSONVILLE/NE FL./SE GA. – IMPACTS FROM THE TROPICS:

Virtually NO impacts from tropical storm “Chris” (other than some dry air on its backside by Tue./Wed.) there is/will be a bit of an easterly swell at area beaches enhancing the rip current risk somewhat.  This swell will decrease Wed. especially Thu./Fri. as Chris accelerates away from Jacksonville.

the remnants of Beryl moving through the Caribbean will turn northward this week but simply as a tropical wave.  The wave will move over the Bahamas mid to late week with some chance for some regeneration but well to the east of Fl. but such a process would be slow, if at all.  I do NOT expect Beryl to be a big problem for the local area or any of the U.S. 

CHRIS:

Chris has finally started the move north/northeast which will become northeast as the storm becomes a hurricane.  An approaching upper level trough surface cold front will insure that Chris accleerates to the northeast over the W./NW Atlantic with no few impacts on the U.S. other than an increased rip current risk.  Chris will be close to Newfoundland by late week as the storm transitions to extratropical.

For Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga. Chris will stay far enough northeast to not have any direct significant impacts though some dry air will get funneled into the local area down the backside of the tropical cyclone an easterly swell will reach our local beaches.

 

BERYL:

“Beryl” its remnants brought some flooding to Puerto Rico Mon. but is now moving away from the island.  The system is poorly organized, I’m not so sure the wave will be able reorganize.  If so, any strengthening is probably not likely to occur until the system is north of the Bahamas perhaps at Jacksonville‘s latitude but hundr of miles to the east.  The wave will then turn more northeast staying far to the east of the U.S.  There will be some heavy rain gusty breezes through Wed. across the Bahamas.

Spaghetti plots for “Beryl”. some models dissipate the system over the Caribbean which why there are fewer lines (models) in the longer term

Mid upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear 

Full Atlantic Basin:

Water vapor imagery below shows a lot of dry in front (west) of north of Beryl

Remants of Beryl moving away from Hispaniola, Chris over the W. Atlantic.

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Gulf of Mexico:

Water vapor imagery:

Deep oceanic heat content is slowly increasing

Sea surface temp. anomalies are below avg. across much of the middle of the Atlantic with unseasonably cool temps. off the coast of Africa.

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

Meanwhile. the W. Pacific typhoon (W. Hemisphere so hurricanes are referred to as typhoons) “Maria” will make landfall by Wed. on the coast of China roughly 300 miles south of Shanghai – as a Cat. 1, possibly low end Cat. 2 typhoon – about the middle of the week.  While strengthening, Maria did damage to Guam at least 4 people have been killed.  Keep in mind that the list of seasonal names for various basins throughout the world are different repeats every 6 years.  You might recall that “Maria” was retired from the Atlantic Basin list of names after the powerful hit last year by hurricane Maria on Puerto Rico.

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